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USDCHF SHORT IDEA

USD/CHF

Posted on: December 14, 2014 at 1:49PM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 0.965

Target Price: 0.935

Analysis:

If we were to give an idea of a short period tactic this week, we would recommend the short UsdChf. The resistance of 0.9850 combined to the formation of the ending diagonal, typical of a trend exhaustion, seems to provide a good tip about a possible short term trend reversal. This is to be added to the divergence between RSI and price. There are no formal signs of a trend reversal at the moment, but the downward break of the 50-day moving average of 0.96 would signal a return of weakness for the dollar. And under this level the short should be evaluated as a end of the year trading. Instead, in case of a rebound, we could try to anticipate the market between 0.97 and 0.98 by opening a half position.

Posted by: forextravel

DOUBLE BOTTOM ON GBPUSD?

GBP/USD

Posted on: December 6, 2014 at 4:05AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.557

Target Price: 1.6

Analysis:

The strategy of Bollinger bands seems to suggest the possibility of a rebound of GbpUsd in the short term. The second low of 1.559 has been realized inside the lower fluctuation band. This technical event should anticipate a shift in the upper part of the Cable which could formalize a double bottom above 1.583 with a target between 1.60 and 1.61. To support this view of the market we can quote the extended differences that we are witnessing from days between RSI and prices. The stop is close and to be placed at 1556; at this point we can quote a long trade.

Posted by: forextravel

BAD NEWS FOR THE AUSSIE

EUR/AUD

Posted on: November 29, 2014 at 8:04AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.46

Target Price: 1.5

Analysis:

Green light for the bear market of AUDUSD after the sharp fall of last week that led to the final break of the low 0.8650. The risk is that of a relentless degrade towards 0.82 where the wide short exposure of hedge funds could find fulfilment. This does not applies to EURAUD whose strength might theoretically reach the resistance of 1.50. The technique of the Ichimoku cloud has provided the expected bullish signal and between 1.50 and 1.51 we can find a significant series of resistance projections. At this point the 2014 fall has been retraced at 61.8% and the upward leg that has recently started is equal to that of September-October.

Posted by: forextravel

EURTRY, DOWNWARD TECHNICAL BREAK

EUR/TRY

Posted on: November 23, 2014 at 12:56PM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 2.76

Target Price: 2.62

Analysis:

EurTry is ready for action after the news coming from the ECB. The 2.80 / 2.90 range has found its way out at the bottom, creating the real possibility of seeing a fall of the cross to area 2.60 / 2.62, a rally that does not affect the long-term bull market of EurTry, but that would help to normalize the excesses accumulated in January 2014. We can find the top of 2011 at 2.60 and probably it will not be surpassed but considering the high interests offered by the Turkish bonds, we could try the short trade.

Posted by: forextravel

EurZar, 200-day average test still failded

EURZAR

Posted on: November 16, 2014 at 12:36PM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 14

Target Price: 13

Analysis:

A very important week is coming for South Africa between data and monetary policy decisions. The announcement on the rates is expected for November 20th, while the day before we will know the data on inflation: two details that are obviously moving the currency markets. The setting of EurZar is not so bad from weeks, moving inside a bearish channel with decreasing top and low. The recent rebound has prevented the change to climb above the 200-day moving average and also above the down trend line at the same time bringing back the short term bearish indicators from the overbought to the oversold. A short trade that we believe might have a good risk-return ratio in this area.

Posted by: forextravel

STOP AND REVERSE STRATEGY ON EURGBP

EUR/GBP

Posted on: November 9, 2014 at 2:53AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 0.78

Target Price: 0.8

Analysis:

Technically EURGBP has tried to break upward area 0.80 in September and October where the cloud generated by Ichimoku crosses, resulting in a failed attempt for the moment. The same thing, but conversely has recently happened to area 0.775. The scenario looks very similar to the beginning of 2014, with the inclination of the clouds that has flattened, but with the lagging line that failed the upward signal. Due to the delicacy of the support of 0.7750 we think we could try a long EURGBP, ready to perform a stop and reverse in case of a break of the downward support.

Posted by: forextravel

FTSE (UK 100) remains in buy the dips mode

FTSE

Posted on: November 3, 2014 at 3:13PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 6487

Target Price: 6696

Analysis:

FTSE (UK 100) Index has been trending higher since forming a low at 6073 on October 16 2014 which was the low in other European Indices as well. Initial move up from 6073 – 6443 was in 7 small swings and ended a cycle which we have labelled as wave “W” in red. Once a cycle is over, we would look for a pull back in 3, 7 or 11 swings. In this case, wave “X” was rather shallow and finished at 6334. Index started trading higher again and made a new high above 6443 peak indicating it had started the next cycle higher. As wave “W” unfolded in 7 swings, we would expect the move up from “X” low (6334) to unfold in 3, 7 or 11 swings. We have already seen 3 swings higher to 6546 but have not yet reached 100% ext of W-X so we would expect the current pull back to find buyers ideally in 6452 – 6424 (50 – 61.8 fib) zone and prices to turn higher again toward 6696 - 6782 (100 – 123.6% ext of W-X) to end the cycle from 10.16 (6073) low As trend is up indicated by 5 big swings up from 10.16 low and green arrow at 6334 low. We don’t like selling the Index in the proposed pull back and view the dips as a buying opportunity in lesser degree 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot at 6334 low remains intact. For further updates, please feel free to visit our website www.elliottwave-forecast.com

Posted by: daud

THE FINAL START OF EURJPY

EUR/JPY

Posted on: November 2, 2014 at 7:55AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 140

Target Price: 145

Analysis:

EurJpy closed a classic continuation triangle (with a bear trap on October 16th) that could now take the cross in area 148/150. In recent days, the market was almost convinced about a new QE from the bank of Japan, and instead once again and with the surprise effect, the BOJ massively intervened to weaken the JPY. At this point, it seems that the correction for EurJpy is closed with a bullish scenario for all the crosses together with JPY sold by the traders as a currency.

Posted by: forextravel

NZDJPY, HOW TO SECOND THE RISK OFF

NZD/JPY

Posted on: October 28, 2014 at 12:27PM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 85.7

Target Price: 83.5

Analysis:

NZDJPY is one of those charts to monitor very closely as it tends to anticipate some important movements in the equity markets. Three almost aligned tops starting from March 2014 with repeated testing of the supports of area 86, before a final break at the end of September, represent a technical event to be reckoned with. At the moment a sort of reaction is trying to bring NZDJPY above the previous supports, but it is clear that a new downward (with the 50-day average cutting 250) could be used in a short key to take advantage of a short term bearish trend.

Posted by: forextravel

EURAUD, ICHIMOKU SAYS BULLISH

EUR/AUD

Posted on: October 19, 2014 at 5:44AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.455

Target Price: 1.5

Analysis:

According to the technique of the Ichimoku cloud, we are now having a technical signal that reinforces the idea of a weak perspective especially for the Australian currency against the Euro. In fact the week has closed with green lights about the bullish setting of EurAud. Even the lagging line (blue line) has provided the latest sign of confirmation of an uptrend that should move towards area 1.50 in fact confirming the bullish engulfing pattern on weekly scale in mid-September. Even on the weekly charts we are witnessing a similar stage that, if formalized, would ensure a prolonged bullish period for the cross.

Posted by: forextravel

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