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EurUsd, incoming volatility

EUR/USD

Posted on: February 27, 2015 at 1:36PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1

Target Price: 1

Analysis:

A triangle is evidently forming on EurUsd after the rise 1.1098-1.1534; the figure has now reached the two-thirds of development that should herald a directional movement. Considering the three waves developed with the upward 1.1098-1.1534, we should witness to a simple continuation of the corrective movement with target between 1.1715 ( wave C here would be equal in amplitude to wave A) or 1.1990 (where wave C would equal 1.618 times wave A), even in case of an upward break of 1.1450,. Only going over these resistances would prelude to a change of scenery.

Posted by: forextravel

USDJPY, THE TERRIBLE MONTH FOR JPY IS COMING

USD/JPY

Posted on: February 27, 2015 at 1:28PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 119

Target Price: 122

Analysis:

March is historically a difficult month for JPY which tends to be weak in the third month of the year. The negative seasonality comes at a particularly delicate moment from a technical point of view with a triangle continuation of the bullish trend that could herald a new upward movement. As we can see from the graph, the barrier of 120 represents the critical node to overcome in order to change the lateral trend started in December. By setting a stop loss in area 117 we believe that we can try a long UsdJpy from now.

Posted by: forextravel

DOLLAR INDEX, A CONTINUATION FIGURE

DXY

Posted on: February 21, 2015 at 7:07AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 94.5

Target Price: 99

Analysis:

Still no news on EurUsd with the market that remains between 1.12 and 1.15, waiting to take a new direction. This behaviour is also reflected on the Dollar Index, which is, however, taking a typical triangle configuration that would seem to anticipate a continuation of the bullish scenario. As we can see from the graph the current phase of the Dollar Index is typical of a reflection stage with a continuation figure with converging tops and lows that are temporarily interrupting the trend. A daily closure of the Dollar Index above 95 would confirm the bullish view while below 93 we could witness a trend reversal.

Posted by: forextravel

Bullish EurNok

EUR/NOK

Posted on: February 14, 2015 at 6:53AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 8.65

Target Price: 8.9

Analysis:

The 50% of the bullish movement has been retraced by EURNOK thanks to the rebound of the price of oil prices. But now the cross is facing a considerable support barrier, i.e. the range between 8.50 and 8.57 that could favour a first stop in the strengthening of the Norwegian currency. The technique of the Ichimoku cloud with the weekly candles offers us a view that is less influenced by the movements of the short term. The closure of the week with a candle known as hammer seems to confirm the value of a support which should raise up the cross. Here we can go long with stop below the low of the last week 8.55.

Posted by: forextravel

GBPUSD, BULLISH HEAD AND SHOULDER

GBP/USD

Posted on: February 7, 2015 at 2:29PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.52

Target Price: 1.55

Analysis:

The Friday session reached the formalization of a reversal figure known as head and shoulder. This movement has stopped near the main bearish trend line, but the bullish movement cannot be considered exhausted. As for the book of technical analysis, the target of this figure should be located in area 1.55 starting from the so-called neck line. The RSI oscillator seems to anticipate the violation of the down trend line as we can clearly see on the chart. The Thursday bullish engulfing pattern gives the final confirmation to a movement that will not have to go below 1.50 for not being annulated.

Posted by: forextravel

EURTRY: END OF THE FALL

EUR/TRY

Posted on: January 31, 2015 at 7:02AM

Long / Short: LONG

Current Price: 2.72

Target Price: 2.85

Analysis:

Among the emerging currencies that have shown a greater vitality in recent months against the Euro, we can quote the Turkish lira. The cross has reached a primary support at 2.65 which coincides with the top of 2011. But it is not the only element that makes us think of a possible exhaustion of the weakness of EurTry. If we look at the 1-year rate of change (ROC), we can see how it has fallen below the threshold of -13%. In the past, this level (see vertical bars) has intercepted (or at least anticipated) the primary bottom of a few weeks. Considering the above mentioned supports and the condition of the oscillator, we could try a long EurTry because the month of February is not seasonally lucky for the Lira; in 7 of the last 8 years, in fact, EurTry has risenf.

Posted by: forextravel

DESPITE THE ECB, EURAUD KEEPS THE BULL MARKET

EUR/AUD

Posted on: January 25, 2015 at 1:41PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.415

Target Price: 1.45

Analysis:

Despite the worsening of the bear market of the Euro caused by the decision to start the Quantitative Easing by the ECB, EURAUD is one of those crosses that at the moment has not found the strength to break downward the bullish trend line in force since 2012. The bearish signal will come when the cloud will be violated downwards by the lagging line (blue line). The positive bullish reaction of Friday makes us think that it is not the time yet to attend a trend reversal so this is why we enter long with stop as the low of last week.

Posted by: forextravel

USDJPY, BEARISH SIGNALS ON WEEKLY CHARTS

USD/JPY

Posted on: January 18, 2015 at 1:53PM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 117

Target Price: 115

Analysis:

UsdJpy is retracing from the tops of 121.85 where a bearish engulfing pattern had put a stop to the bull market. But now we can see some interesting bearish signals on weekly charts. As we can see from the chart, a downward cut of the MACD compared to the signal line (orange lines) should at least start a lateral bearish phase that is going to last for more than a few weeks. In fact, the signal has been triggered at the end of last week and this should be the start of a strength period of the Yen. The stop of the short UsdJpy should be placed at 121.85.

Posted by: forextravel

EURCAD STOP AND REVERSE

EUR/CAD

Posted on: January 10, 2015 at 11:50AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 1

Target Price: 1

Analysis:

An interesting medium term bearish signal has reached EurCad at the end of the week, at least according to the technique of the Ichimoku cloud. Prices and lagging line under the cloud (confirmed by the daily charts) would actually certify the chance to see the Euro falling even against this commodity currencies despite the recent sharp decline in oil prices. In case of a final violation of area 1.40, EurCad would be ready for a fall at least until 1.35. Of note the repeated attempts of the cross to rise above 1.45 (now a resistance) before handing over definitely downward in recent days.

Posted by: forextravel

EURCAD BETTING ON TRADING RANGE

EUR/CAD

Posted on: January 3, 2015 at 10:55AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.41

Target Price: 1.43

Analysis:

Together with the data concerning the American unemployment, there will be a new one on the Canadian unemployment on January 9th. EURCAD shows an interesting technical profile, with area 1.40 as an important support threshold tested on many occasions from September 2014, but never violated. Considering the support levels achieved by EurUsd (1.20) and the quite oversold oscillators, we think it might be interesting to open a long EURCAD on these levels of 1.40 with a strict stop loss of the operation under the low minimum of 1.3887 of November. The target is to play on the trading range with a return in area 1.43 that would represent an ideal take profit place.

Posted by: forextravel

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