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EURAUD, END OF CORRECTION

EUR/AUD

Posted on: April 19, 2014 at 8:51AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.48

Target Price: 1.52

Analysis:

Perhaps a decisive moment for the evolution of EURAUD. The cross has fully entered the "envelope" of supports offered by the 40 weeks moving average that has contained every downward of EURAUD from September 2012. This level, among other things, coincides with the negative two standard deviations of the regression line that drives the bull market and at this point the two corrective legs that have developed from the top of 1.5834 on January 28th are equal in amplitude. Many projections make it a particularly interesting opportunity for entering long on EURAUD, also confirmed by the 10 weeks Trix that came close to the zero line, a line that has never been broken downward from the beginning of the bullish signal in October 2012.

Posted by: FOREXTRAVEL

IT’S TIME COME BACK LONG ON USDZAR

USD/ZAR

Posted on: April 12, 2014 at 6:40AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 10.48

Target Price: 11

Analysis:

The weekly chart of USDZAR shows us how, from the start of the bull market in 2011, the bullish trend of USDZAR is regular and well dammed by the two 200-day and 255-day averages. Therefore the area between 10.18 and 10.35 becomes crucial in terms of support. An interesting cue is also coming from the cyclic analysis. The 110-day cycle has intercepted the top of USDZAR from 2011 with precision; the next cyclical peak (so the maximum weakness of the Rand) is scheduled for early July so it is legitimate to expect a movement of strength of USDZAR in the coming weeks also because of the importance of the long-term technical supports.

Posted by: FOREXTRAVEL

GBPJPY, BOLLINGER SAYS SHORT!

GBP/JPY

Posted on: April 6, 2014 at 12:13PM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 171.2

Target Price: 170

Analysis:

The graphic form of GBPJPY seems to indicate a critical level on the resistance of 173 beyond which going long of Pound and short of Yen could be a winning strategy in the coming weeks. At the moment, however, the only technical doubt that is still remaining on our analysis has not yet been removed. According to the theory of Bollinger Bands in fact, two tops with the second one unable to climb over the upper wall of the band, are equal to a divergence to be taken into account in the analysis phase. The closure of Friday seems to be a premise of what could happen in the next few sessions in when we believe a return to 170 is highly likely.

Posted by: FOREXTRAVEL

THE CYCLICAL WINDOW IN FAVOUR OF THE AUSSIE IS COMING TO A CLOSURE

AUD/USD

Posted on: March 30, 2014 at 1:59AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 0.928

Target Price: 0.9

Analysis:

Bollinger bands on a weekly scale are now offering a resistance of respect for AUDUSD. In area 0.93 in fact we can find the upper band (2 standard deviations from the 20 weeks average) that has contained any attempt to reverse from July 2011; furthermore, we can find the low of 2011 at 0.9388 and this could validate the idea of difficulty of the Aussie exceeding this level. Ideally there may be margins for appreciation until mid-May as confirmed by the seasonality (and in extreme cases an extreme acceleration up to 0.95 should not be excluded), but then the 29 weeks tops cycle should give a negative influence on the exchange. Since the top of 2011 in fact, this cycle has always coincided with a primary top.

Posted by: FOREXTRAVEL

IT’S TIME TO SELL INDIAN RUPEES

USD/INR

Posted on: March 22, 2014 at 7:33AM

Long / Short: long

Current Price: 61

Target Price: 64

Analysis:

It’s time for the truth on the Indian rupee, well controlled so far by the central bank after repeated interventions and a rise in exchange rates. Area 61/62 has provided an excellent support as required. For some time now the market is keep on oscillating above area 61, but from a technical point of view, it seems there are no margins of appreciation. The technique of the Ichimoku cloud confronts us with an evidence, or a long term support area that is very important. From September 2011 UsdInr has not fallen under the "clouds" and if the bullish trend is expected to continue here, we should go long UsdInr.

Posted by: forextravel

We have tried to test where EurChf was when the Rsi entered the oversold area, as is now happening, and the result is represented by the green flags. In all cases from 2012 till today, the primary bottom was very close. If we also consider the important presence of the static support levels and the

EUR/CHF

Posted on: March 17, 2014 at 1:30PM

Long / Short: long

Current Price: 1

Target Price: 1

Analysis:

We have tried to test where EurChf was when the Rsi entered the oversold area, as is now happening, and the result is represented by the green flags. In all cases from 2012 till today, the primary bottom was very close. If we also consider the important presence of the static support levels and the formalization of a classic wave of Wolfe (three decreasing lows and the third one that breaks downward and then comes back, and an intermediate wave between the second and the third low that enters the first low territory), then we would tend towards a weak scenery over the next few weeks for the Swiss franc; first reasonable target is area 1.23.

Posted by: forextravel

A PRESUMABLE CYCLIC REBOUND FOR USDCHF

USD/CHF

Posted on: March 9, 2014 at 12:19PM

Long / Short: long

Current Price: 0.88

Target Price: 0.9

Analysis:

March is not a promising month for UsdChf (in 7 of the last 8 years the change has dropped), but certainly the graphical structure encourage an important reaction of the dollar towards a classic risk-free as the Swiss franc, at least in the short term. The cyclical analysis would seem to push in this direction. The daily chart shows an excellent 45 days cycle which has been intercepting for over a year now, the low of UsdChf. Surgical precision in December, October, August, June and April 2013, i.e. starting from the bear market. So this element seems to confirm a plausible return to area 0.90/0.91, the real test in an enlarged temporal optical.

Posted by: forextravel

BEARISH HEAD AND SHOULDER IN FORMATION ON EURUSD?

EUR/USD

Posted on: March 4, 2014 at 2:16PM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 1

Target Price: 1.35

Analysis:

The classic trading range in formation on EurUsd since October 2013 with three tops looks so much like a bearish head and shoulder in formation for now. 1.3832, 1.3893 and 1.3824 last Friday represent three ideal tops for this kind of figure, but obviously the break of the bearish neck line in transit at 1.3550 will have to formalize the technical reversal figure. At this point, we think there is an excellent risk reward ratio to enter short at 1.38 with stop loss above 1.39. The minimum goal is precisely the neck line quoted above.

Posted by: forextravel

A new favourable month is coming for EurJpy

EUR/JPY

Posted on: February 26, 2014 at 11:09AM

Long / Short: long

Current Price: 139.6

Target Price: 142

Analysis:

EurJpy is the potential beneficiary of the seasonality in the month of March. During the last 13 years, the cross has risen 11 times, confirming the third month of the year, a typical closure period of the Japanese fiscal balances, as a negative month for the Yen. For EurJpy it could turn into an ideal launch pad to reach the highest of 145.70 in the month of January. Oscillators appear quite addressed towards the overbought side at the moment, and this seems to suggest a correction in this last week of February or even in the first of March. Taking advantage of this movement could be very profitable for the rest of the month. Area 136/138 is the ideal entry point for those who want to ride this potentially favorable phenomenon for EurJpy.

Posted by: forextravel

USDCAD, THE BEST SITUATION FOR A SHORT

USD/CAD

Posted on: February 22, 2014 at 2:06PM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 1.112

Target Price: 1.09

Analysis:

The sentiment situation of the Canadian dollar seems to be very interesting for those who want to operate in a contrarian optical. The balance of the net short commercials has reached record levels and there are reversal signs also from the a technical point of view. In this regard it will be interesting to see what will happen to UsdCad between 1.1225, February top and 1.1335, 50% retracement of the entire bear market. A new test with no positive outcome would be a positive signal to come back bullish in the short-term on the Loonie, but only under 1.09 the investment will have a strategic value in the medium term. Considering the proximity of primary resistances, however, we would try the short trade.

Posted by: forextravel

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