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NZDUSD, A PAUSE IN THE DOWNTREND

NZD/USD

Posted on: September 13, 2014 at 10:25AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 0.815

Target Price: 0.85

Analysis:

NzdUsd fell at 0.816 from the top of July 0.883 leaning on the 200-week average. Is the correction finished? No, in our view, and this happens for two reasons. The first one is related to the fact that the realignment with the unemployment rate has not yet been completed; the second one is because the positions of the non-commercials in the futures market are still not so extreme as to justify a bottom. As we can see from the graph in fact, NzdUsd tends to record a primary low when the placement of the hedge funds becomes net short. At the moment we are still far away.

Posted by: forextravel

GBPUSD, A BULL TRAP

GBP/USD

Posted on: September 6, 2014 at 8:11AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.635

Target Price: 1.66

Analysis:

What happened to the Cable above 1.70 at the end of July has to be considered as a classic trap for the bulls; this behaviour has been paid dearly by GbpUsd that from that moment has fallen for seven consecutive weeks. The support that has been reached at the moment at 1.63 seems to be very solid (also 38.2% of retracement of the bull market) and we believe that the Cable is attempting to build a first base before the restart. We cannot exclude a further attack, but observing the oscillators at the moment this idea seems quite remote. Furthermore the weekly RSI seems to confirm this view that should now witness a temporary rise of the Cable to be tactically exploited by entering long on GbpUsd.

Posted by: forextravel

USDTRY, IT’S TIME TO GO LONG

USD/TRY

Posted on: August 9, 2014 at 9:14AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 2.17

Target Price: 2.25

Analysis:

The figure formalized at the end of the week for UsdTry is a clear bullish head and shoulder figure that does not predict a positive trend for the upcoming sessions. Following the correction started in January after the dramatic sell-off of Try in the last part of the year, UsdTry has begun to accumulate in a narrow range between 2.15 and 2.06 always turning around the 200-day moving average. Last week, the escape from this range now opens the door to a wider movement towards 2.25 theoretical target of the head and shoulder and transit area of different resistances.

Posted by: forextravel

A GOOD MOMENT TO BUY NZD AGAIN

NZD/USD

Posted on: August 3, 2014 at 12:41PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 0.849

Target Price: 0.87

Analysis:

NzdUsd has quickly passed from the top of 0.8836 on July 10th till 0.8510 today. When the market recovers an important long term break that was completed during 2014 so fast, we must pay attention. The Kiwi has, however, reached a quite important projection of the supports thanks to a wide oversold. This consideration leads us to conclude that there will hardly be a break of the supports of 0.84, thus providing a bullish opportunity to traders to go long NzdUsd. Of course, the stop loss should be placed below 0.84.

Posted by: forextravel

BULLISH BREAK FOR USDJPY?

USD/JPY

Posted on: August 3, 2014 at 12:39PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 102.6

Target Price: 104.5

Analysis:

The strength of the dollar seems to grow even against the Yen and UsdJpy has forced the falling trend line in place since the beginning of the year. This is a signal not to be underestimated also because the weekly Macd seems to be in the ideal conditions to facilitate an upward boost. As we can see from the graph, the two previous wedge figures of 2012 and 2013 have always been accompanied by a cut from the bottom to the top of the Macd respect to the line of the signal during the bullish break. Area 107 could become the next target in the event of a bullish break confirmed in next week.

Posted by: forextravel

REBOUND IN SIGHT FOR EURUSD?

EUR/USD

Posted on: July 30, 2014 at 1:30PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.339

Target Price: 1.36

Analysis:

As for EurUsd, as we can see from the chart, the bullish trend line seems to have been temporarily broken, but if we use the method of Fibonacci Fan Line we can see that the first line of support linked to 38.2% transits at 1.34 and then the bearish break cannot be confirmed yet. Furthermore, the RSI in oversold might sustain the rebound of the change in the coming sessions. EurUsd will necessarily break down these supports to start a more intense bullish phase towards 1.28/1.30. The upward rebound should target area 1.3650/1.37.

Posted by: forextravel

EURJPY, THE FALL HAS TO STOP AT THIS POINT

EUR/JPY

Posted on: July 27, 2014 at 2:17AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 137

Target Price: 139

Analysis:

A particular moment of EurJpy that has just fallen below area 138 and is now trying to react on the lows of February 2014 at 136.20 before a much more important fall. It’s evident also on the graph that the triangular figure in formation might be annulled below the above mentioned support. We believe that a reaction in the short time of the cross with target included between 138 and 139 is possible. But difficultly it will pass over it due to the Adx above e 30 that still witnesses a certain strength of the downward, but at this point the upward rebound could be exploited by opening a long position.

Posted by: forextravel

EURAUD, STARTING TO ACCUMULATE LONG

EUR/AUD

Posted on: July 27, 2014 at 2:16AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.425

Target Price: 1.45

Analysis:

EurAud is coming to the truth, or the technical threshold of 1.40 that in fact will tell us if the Australian money will get the strength to be again an excellent diversification currency asset for the Euro zone residents. The weekly chart based on the Ichimoku cloud shows us how the change has entered the cloud that accompanies the rebound from more than one year. It’s evident that below 1.40 (low of November 2013) the change might experience a new scenario by breaking the base of wave 4. Accumulating long positions starting from now on might be a good idea.

Posted by: forextravel

DOUBLE TOP FOR NZDUSD?

NZD/USD

Posted on: July 6, 2014 at 2:56AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 0.875

Target Price: 0.84

Analysis:

The attempt of NzdUsd to force the top of 0.8780 in the month of May proved to be unsuccessful for now with the market that stationed for several sessions in that area before retracing. The differences between the oscillators and the prices that we can see are very similar to the one we saw in April when the same differences anticipated a fall of NzdUsd up to 0.84. We believe that this scenario could be repeated, and for this reason we prefer the short side to take advantage of this hypothetical downward movement of at least three figures.

Posted by: forextravel

BULLISH DIVERGENCE ON EURAUD

EUR/AUD

Posted on: July 5, 2014 at 8:39AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.45

Target Price: 1.5

Analysis:

The risk of weakness of AUD in the coming weeks is becoming more concrete as we can see from the analysis of the cross combined with that of the 8-week Roc. Since the bull market of EURAUD started, every time in two months that the cross lost about 5% (vertical bars), the exchange rate has recorded a primary that indicated its new rise. This event in May did not trigger the rise of EURAUD, but now there is a stark difference which should make the change come back to higher levels. For this reason we prefer the long scenario for the next few weeks.

Posted by: forextravel

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