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NZDJPY, HOW TO SECOND THE RISK OFF

NZD/JPY

Posted on: October 28, 2014 at 12:27PM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 85.7

Target Price: 83.5

Analysis:

NZDJPY is one of those charts to monitor very closely as it tends to anticipate some important movements in the equity markets. Three almost aligned tops starting from March 2014 with repeated testing of the supports of area 86, before a final break at the end of September, represent a technical event to be reckoned with. At the moment a sort of reaction is trying to bring NZDJPY above the previous supports, but it is clear that a new downward (with the 50-day average cutting 250) could be used in a short key to take advantage of a short term bearish trend.

Posted by: forextravel

EURAUD, ICHIMOKU SAYS BULLISH

EUR/AUD

Posted on: October 19, 2014 at 5:44AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.455

Target Price: 1.5

Analysis:

According to the technique of the Ichimoku cloud, we are now having a technical signal that reinforces the idea of a weak perspective especially for the Australian currency against the Euro. In fact the week has closed with green lights about the bullish setting of EurAud. Even the lagging line (blue line) has provided the latest sign of confirmation of an uptrend that should move towards area 1.50 in fact confirming the bullish engulfing pattern on weekly scale in mid-September. Even on the weekly charts we are witnessing a similar stage that, if formalized, would ensure a prolonged bullish period for the cross.

Posted by: forextravel

BULLISH DIVERGENCES ON THE CABLE

GBP/USD

Posted on: October 19, 2014 at 5:43AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.6

Target Price: 1.63

Analysis:

A very interesting tactical opportunity on the Cable. The graph shows how GbpUsd has reached considerable oversold levels but already in divergence with prices. The price of GbpUsd instead shows an opposite trend with decreasing tops and lows that are now assuming the classic wedge shape that could herald an upward movement in fact already occurred on Thursday. To confirm this view we can also quote the achievement of the support of area 1.58, the low of wave 4. If the bull market is still alive, there must be a proof of vitality with this eventual rebound should be firstly targeted to area 1.63.

Posted by: forextravel

HOW TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FALL OF OIL

USD/CAD

Posted on: October 12, 2014 at 3:11AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 1.12

Target Price: 1.1

Analysis:

USDCAD has always been closely tied to the price of the WTI. Last week, USDCAD has effectively stopped its rise in area 1.1280 (top of March), while the WTI has continued its downward race. Double top for USDCAD or a divergence bound to be resolved with the overcoming of 1.1280? We do not know. But certainly the market has drawn a "line in the sand" against a WTI that has thoroughly fallen below the lows of 2014. This divergence is to follow, and we believe that the risk reward ratio of a short USDCAD is quite interesting.

Posted by: forextravel

AUDUSD, A CYCLIC REBOUND IS COMING

AUD/USD

Posted on: October 4, 2014 at 8:02AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 0.87

Target Price: 0.9

Analysis:

The fall of the Australian dollar against the American dollar last month was sensational (nearly 7%). At the moment AUDUSD is positioned exactly on the low of the beginning of this year at 0.8660, making a technical rebound phase possible for the Aussie. This consideration also arises from the cyclical window (28-29 weeks) which will open in late November and early December, and that is intercepting some primary tops within the bearish trend in progress rather reliably since 2011. This means that the Aussie will soon start the upward movement to intercept the cyclical top and, considering the reached supports, here we can try a long.

Posted by: forextravel

STRONG RESISTANCES FOR USDCHF

USD/CHF

Posted on: September 29, 2014 at 12:42PM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 0.947

Target Price: 0.91

Analysis:

The month of October is not seasonally particularly bright for UsdChf, and tends to move ahead of the ten-year American rates. In fact, the graph shows the candlestick chart of UsdChf while the green line represents the 10-year Tnote. In 2008 and 2011 UsdChf anticipated a few months the evolution of interest rates; this is why we can well understand what impact a definitive upward break could have. We believe that the first turning point could be the 65-day moving average located at 0.9550, beyond which we could reach the equality. The Macd is also under resistance, so it may be worth trying a short UsdChf

Posted by: forextravel

BULLISH SIGNALS FOR USDMXN

USD/MXN

Posted on: September 27, 2014 at 9:10AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 13.45

Target Price: 14

Analysis:

The strength of the dollar is not only quite evident against the euro, and USDMXN is an excellent barometer of the entire emerging landscape. Its rise above area 13.50 (and the weekly MACD would seem well set up to second more rises), might push the change towards area 14. This movement would probably be accompanied by new tensions on emerging currencies and the most vulnerable ones (BRL, Zar, Try), will inevitably suffer further devaluations. So, eyes open on USDMXN as it may anticipate a new phase of weakness in emerging markets, but mostly it seems to offer important long potentials from a short-term trading view.

Posted by: forextravel

EURJPY, A NEW BULLISH WAVE?

EUR/JPY

Posted on: September 21, 2014 at 6:21AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 139.9

Target Price: 145

Analysis:

We are facing a key moment for EurJpy. The MACD is about to rise above the zero line (an event that was missing from September 2012), the 25-week moving average has been bypassed upward and the triangular congestion in place by the beginning of 2014 is going to be violated upward. Considering the numerous support projections between 136 and 137, together with the lack of incisiveness in the fall of EurJpy in a period in which the euro is not having a great time, an upward breakthrough at 140 preludes, in our view, the final restart of the bull market of EurJpy

Posted by: forextravel

NZDUSD, A PAUSE IN THE DOWNTREND

NZD/USD

Posted on: September 13, 2014 at 10:25AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 0.815

Target Price: 0.85

Analysis:

NzdUsd fell at 0.816 from the top of July 0.883 leaning on the 200-week average. Is the correction finished? No, in our view, and this happens for two reasons. The first one is related to the fact that the realignment with the unemployment rate has not yet been completed; the second one is because the positions of the non-commercials in the futures market are still not so extreme as to justify a bottom. As we can see from the graph in fact, NzdUsd tends to record a primary low when the placement of the hedge funds becomes net short. At the moment we are still far away.

Posted by: forextravel

GBPUSD, A BULL TRAP

GBP/USD

Posted on: September 6, 2014 at 8:11AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.635

Target Price: 1.66

Analysis:

What happened to the Cable above 1.70 at the end of July has to be considered as a classic trap for the bulls; this behaviour has been paid dearly by GbpUsd that from that moment has fallen for seven consecutive weeks. The support that has been reached at the moment at 1.63 seems to be very solid (also 38.2% of retracement of the bull market) and we believe that the Cable is attempting to build a first base before the restart. We cannot exclude a further attack, but observing the oscillators at the moment this idea seems quite remote. Furthermore the weekly RSI seems to confirm this view that should now witness a temporary rise of the Cable to be tactically exploited by entering long on GbpUsd.

Posted by: forextravel

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