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EURJPY, THE FALL HAS TO STOP AT THIS POINT

EUR/JPY

Posted on: July 27, 2014 at 2:17AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 137

Target Price: 139

Analysis:

A particular moment of EurJpy that has just fallen below area 138 and is now trying to react on the lows of February 2014 at 136.20 before a much more important fall. It’s evident also on the graph that the triangular figure in formation might be annulled below the above mentioned support. We believe that a reaction in the short time of the cross with target included between 138 and 139 is possible. But difficultly it will pass over it due to the Adx above e 30 that still witnesses a certain strength of the downward, but at this point the upward rebound could be exploited by opening a long position.

Posted by: forextravel

EURAUD, STARTING TO ACCUMULATE LONG

EUR/AUD

Posted on: July 27, 2014 at 2:16AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.425

Target Price: 1.45

Analysis:

EurAud is coming to the truth, or the technical threshold of 1.40 that in fact will tell us if the Australian money will get the strength to be again an excellent diversification currency asset for the Euro zone residents. The weekly chart based on the Ichimoku cloud shows us how the change has entered the cloud that accompanies the rebound from more than one year. It’s evident that below 1.40 (low of November 2013) the change might experience a new scenario by breaking the base of wave 4. Accumulating long positions starting from now on might be a good idea.

Posted by: forextravel

DOUBLE TOP FOR NZDUSD?

NZD/USD

Posted on: July 6, 2014 at 2:56AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 0.875

Target Price: 0.84

Analysis:

The attempt of NzdUsd to force the top of 0.8780 in the month of May proved to be unsuccessful for now with the market that stationed for several sessions in that area before retracing. The differences between the oscillators and the prices that we can see are very similar to the one we saw in April when the same differences anticipated a fall of NzdUsd up to 0.84. We believe that this scenario could be repeated, and for this reason we prefer the short side to take advantage of this hypothetical downward movement of at least three figures.

Posted by: forextravel

BULLISH DIVERGENCE ON EURAUD

EUR/AUD

Posted on: July 5, 2014 at 8:39AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.45

Target Price: 1.5

Analysis:

The risk of weakness of AUD in the coming weeks is becoming more concrete as we can see from the analysis of the cross combined with that of the 8-week Roc. Since the bull market of EURAUD started, every time in two months that the cross lost about 5% (vertical bars), the exchange rate has recorded a primary that indicated its new rise. This event in May did not trigger the rise of EURAUD, but now there is a stark difference which should make the change come back to higher levels. For this reason we prefer the long scenario for the next few weeks.

Posted by: forextravel

EURUSD, DECISIVE SUPPORTS

EUR/USD

Posted on: June 28, 2014 at 2:36PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.36

Target Price: 1.38

Analysis:

If we analyze the distribution of individual daily data concerning EurUsd during the last 5 years we can see that almost 25% of these are included in the 1.3450/1.3750 range, as if to say that for more than one year out of five the exchange rate has remained within this narrow belt. This is one of the reasons why it is crucial to keep the level of 1.3450/1.35 even in the future. This is also confirmed by the passage in that area of the bullish trend line that supports the bull market from 2012. In other words, if the Euro would start here upward, than we could find one of the strongest supports of the last five years and for this reason the risk reward seems to be excellent to try a long EurUsd.

Posted by: forextravel

GBPJPY, BULLISH BREAK

GBP/JPY

Posted on: June 21, 2014 at 10:12AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 173.5

Target Price: 178

Analysis:

GBPJPY came out with arrogance from the triangular figure in place since the beginning of the year thus providing an important bullish signal. In fact, level 169 on which the cross was on from a long time was definitively dismissed and we are now facing a decisive moment, i.e. the 120-month moving average (10 years). This average has acted as a skillful support between 2007 and 2008; from the beginning of 2014 it is doing the same, but this time as a resistance. It is reasonable to think that an upward break of this resistance band will produce an acceleration towards the ambitious target of the double low 2009-2012, or area 200, the 61.8% of retracement of the entire bear market.

Posted by: forextravel

EURJPY, BEARISH BREAKS

EUR/JPY

Posted on: June 14, 2014 at 11:42AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 138.3

Target Price: 135

Analysis:

Green light for the short term bearish scenario of EurJpy, at least according to the rules of Ichimoku cloud. Lagging line below prices, price under the cloud, leading line crossed downward: all pretty clear bearish signals on the charts. So, what is missing now that the exposure of hedge funds remains quite bearish and therefore ideal to be surprised? It is the break of the 200 day moving average, that has never been violated from November 2012 and this clearly makes any kind of operation particularly dangerous. The feeling is, however, a still negative momentum for EurJpy in the coming days

Posted by: forextravel

EURUSD, AN UPWARD RESTART

EUR/USD

Posted on: June 8, 2014 at 1:28PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.364

Target Price: 1.385

Analysis:

A pretty clear weekly closure for EurUsd. The figure is the hammer (or key reversal depending on the currents of thought) with the market falling down to 1.35 that closed the week almost at the top, meaning that buyers have not missed the opportunity to buy EurUsd on the supports of the up trend line in place since 2012. The closure was above the 200-day moving average and this also appears to be a bullish signal if added to the oversold reached by EurUsd in the last few days. Exceeding 1.37 would confirm the bullish scenario.

Posted by: forextravel

NZDJPY, BETTING ON THE VOLATILITY

NZD/JPY

Posted on: June 1, 2014 at 1:47AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 86.5

Target Price: 83

Analysis:

There is a month in which equity markets are quite volatile: the month of June. Since 2009 the S&P 500 has dropped 4 times in the sixth month of the year and a good way to take advantage of this weakness is to go short on NZDJPY. During the last few weeks the cross has fallen down with a clear bearish head and shoulder formalized in March and April. Now NZDJPY is on the bullish trend line, but we think that the break of the support is only a matter of days with the real goal of this movement represented by the 1-year moving average of 83.

Posted by: forextravel

EURUSD, REBOUND IN SIGHT

EUR/USD

Posted on: May 24, 2014 at 10:06AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.363

Target Price: 1.385

Analysis:

We have had a break of 1.3673 on EurUsd at the closure of the week and the formalization of the double top figure at 1.3967-1.3993, which effectively should open door to 1.34/1.3350. However, we are perplexed about this scenario, both because the weekly closing was made exactly on the 200-day moving average, both for the directions that are emerging from the Relative Momentum Index (red line). The Relative Momentum Index is an oscillator that so far has precisely hit the primary lows of EurUsd last year and its current setting appears to actually propose a new upward push of the single currency.

Posted by: FOREXTRAVEL

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