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USDCAD, divergence and resistance

USD/CAD

Posted on: August 9, 2015 at 6:27AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 1.315

Target Price: 1.28

Analysis:

The weekly chart of UsdCad shows us the significant resistance level reached by the change. In line with the oil price now close to the lows of 2009, UsdCad also confirms its close relationship with the black gold. The top of 1.31 in 2009 has been reached with significant divergences in the weekly RSI. This typical technical behaviour usually heralds a trend reversak and this is why we consider the risk-return ratio quite of a short entry on this level as very good. First target at 1.28.

Posted by: forextravel

EURJPY, a great indecision

EUR/JPY

Posted on: August 9, 2015 at 6:26AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 136.2

Target Price: 137.5

Analysis:

EurJpy fell in August in 13 of the last 16 years, but certainly we have to take note of but note how the fulfilment of this seasonality in fact opens the way to the downward for the single European currency with target at least 133.35, neck line of the potential bearish head and shoulder. Clearly a figure of this type, if formalized, would completely reverse the scenario in favour of the yen. On the other hand we note the difficulty in overcoming the 1-year moving average, and this makes level 137 / 137.50 as a technical threshold beyond which the situation would unblock upwards. At the moment we prefer the long side following the short term trend of with hard stop loss below 135.

Posted by: forextravel

EURGBP, a boost to rise

EUR/GBP

Posted on: August 9, 2015 at 6:25AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 0.707

Target Price: 0.74

Analysis:

Interesting reaction of EurGbp last Friday after the data on US unemployment. The latest attempt to break the psychological threshold of 0.70 downward (already tried the previous day after the meeting of the Bank of England) is solved again with a denial. The market has shown that this support barrier in fact represents a level beyond which it does not want to go. As we can see from the graph the week begins with the resistance of 0.707 under pressure. An upward break would shift EurGbp at least at 0.72, but this would only be a step towards higher resistances area such as 0.74.

Posted by: forextravel

Potential double low for AudJpy

AUD/JPY

Posted on: August 2, 2015 at 2:25AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 90

Target Price: 92

Analysis:

The level of 89.50 represents an excellent support barrier to AudJpy and the meeting of the Australian central bank this week could favour a rebound at least up to 92. Here is the top of July, but most of all the barrier beyond which a double low would be formalized. At this point we could set a long trade AudJpy with minimum target 92 and maximum one 94.50, or the transit zone of the bearish trend line as well as the projections of the upward double bottom.

Posted by: forextravel

NzdUsd, the fall is over?

NZD/USD

Posted on: August 2, 2015 at 2:24AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 0

Target Price: 0

Analysis:

NzdUsd fell almost without interruption in the last year, but there is an indicator that is able to indicate the time when the downward pressure is in a depletion phase with a good reliability. We are talking about the Stochastic Momentum Index that on a weekly scale rarely reaches excessive levels (the maximum value of the range is between +100 and -100) as those seen in July. In the foregoing cases this technical condition has started a rebound phase or at least a stop in the descent. For this reason, the long in area 0.65 seems a good risk return compromise.

Posted by: forextravel

STILL LONG EURUSD

EUR/USD

Posted on: July 26, 2015 at 2:47AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1

Target Price: 1

Analysis:

The situation of EurUsd is not so easy to interpret. Certainly the support of 1.0819 has resisted and this gives the chance of a development of a new upward impulse within the new trend in place since March. The recent completion is related to the formation of three downward waves with subsequent upward restart. This continues to suggest the possibility that the market may point towards the 200-day moving average which is converging towards area 1.14 / 1.15, the now very well known resistance level. The final break of 1.08, instead, would set the change to the lows of 2015.

Posted by: forextravel

USDMXN, EXCESSIVE UPWARD

USD/MXN

Posted on: July 26, 2015 at 2:46AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 16

Target Price: 14

Analysis:

New historical lows for the Mexican Peso against the Dollar with a break at 16. The new downward phase in the price of oil feeds the selling but it is quite clear in terms of graphics that we are facing a speculative phase that is generating an upward excess of a bull market bullish in place now for 15 years. We are more over than the two standard regressing deviations, but also on the weekly RSI we can see clear differences. The historical record of short positions in the futures market of Mxn makes us not think that we should not be far from a top. So, we can start a short UsdMxn from this point, increasing the position under 15.58.

Posted by: forextravel

EURJPY, A MISLEADING HEAD AND SHOULDER

EUR/JPY

Posted on: July 26, 2015 at 2:41AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 135

Target Price: 140

Analysis:

An important moment for EurJpy that keeps up its bullish trend in place since April 2015. After touching the 61.8% of retracement of the entire fall in December 2014 - April 2015, the cross has reacted by turning downward and actually continuing the formation of a typical figure of potential bearish head and shoulder. The neck line is positioned around 133.30 and therefore we know the support below which the view will completely change. Vice versa, the overcoming of 138 (potential right shoulder) would boost the bullish movement, sweeping away all doubts. However, at the moment, we prefer the long side.

Posted by: forextravel

EURCAD, the weakness of oil strikes again

EUR/CAD

Posted on: July 5, 2015 at 1:16PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1

Target Price: 1

Analysis:

As we can see from the chart, EURCAD has registered a candle known as bullish engulfing pattern last Monday, exactly behind the newborn bullish cloud. Whereas here the two corrective legs were matched in size and that the lagging line remains in a bullish position, except a bearish break of EurUsd of the support area 1.10, the next direction for EURCAD should be upward. If the movement above 1.40 were to take shape, then the bearish trend line and the 200-day moving average would be destroyed in just one shot, opening up new bullish ambitious possibilities.

Posted by: forextravel

EURUSD, SUPPORTS TEST

EUR/USD

Posted on: July 5, 2015 at 1:16PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1

Target Price: 1

Analysis:

The graph based on the technique of the Ichimoku Cloud shows that, not only the change EurUsd is resting on the support and on the trend line in place since April, but also that the lagging line (blue line) is doomed to rise (and therefore to see a growth of the EurUsd spot) if the market wants to keep up this little bullish trend for the Euro. Many oscillators are close to the short term oversold and then set the best way to project EurUsd again towards 1.15. Clearly a closure below 1.10 would stop this reaction of the Euro reopening the doors to parity.

Posted by: forextravel

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