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GBPJPY, THE BULL MARKET RESTARTS AFTER THE DOUBLE LOW

GBP/JPY

Posted on: May 20, 2015 at 12:39PM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 187

Target Price: 195

Analysis:

Long GBPJPY was a trade that was an invitation for an entry during the test or area 175 a few weeks ago (and simultaneously the lower wall of the uptrend channel). The unknown factor was the British elections, but the market was moving in advance towards a positive scenario. Thank to the upward break for the short term downtrend line, after the regaining of the 200-day moving average, and the formalization of a double low with a rise above 185, the road ahead GBPJPY appears esplanade. The target should be area 195 or even 200, the 61.8% of retracement of the 2007-2012 bear market.

Posted by: forextravel

EURJPY, TAKE PROFIT AND REVERSE

EUR/JPY

Posted on: May 10, 2015 at 9:27AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 134

Target Price: 130

Analysis:

A third low of price in the face of a third rising low of Rsi was necessary for EurJpy to get the cross rise more strongly. As for the textbook of the technique analysis, the movement of the cross reached the low of 126.09 below the previous 126.91 in March before a strong restart just the very day after the analysis. The trend line that linked the tops of the final diagonal has been broken upward, and the acceleration has produced a rally that is now a noteworthy resistance level, quite difficult to overcome on the first try, or area 137. Here it may be a good idea to go short .

Posted by: forextravel

EURNOK, FORCED LONG

EUR/NOK

Posted on: May 2, 2015 at 9:51AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 8.5

Target Price: 8.9

Analysis:

The EurNok chart indicates a decisive point for the cross. The graph based on the weekly Ichimoku cloud technique shows us the very delicate level that has been reached. Obviously, prices are leaning on a decisive support, and the low at 8.32 should represent the ideal stop loss of a long operation for EurNok; anyway we can note how the thickness of the cloud is very small and this, in contrast to the correction of 2014, makes the Euro quite more vulnerable. Summarizing, those wishing to bet on the recovery of the bullish trend have to sell Nok here, though fixing some very tight stop loss levels in the light of the above mentioned considerations.

Posted by: forextravel

UsdTry, bearish extremes?

USD/TRY

Posted on: April 26, 2015 at 6:28AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 2.713

Target Price: 2.54

Analysis:

The graph of UsdTry shows us how the change has increased more than 25% in 1 year, reaching the bullish technical achievement generated by the bullish break in 2011. In that year in fact, the resistance of area 1.77 (that since 2000 kept this currency caged in a wide trading range) was violated upward. At that moment, the expected graphic target was equal to the percentage amplitude of the previous range, i.e. +50%. This happened in 2015, hitting the target. Considering the very high level of the 1-year Roc, we can now expect a stop in the upward phase that can be exploited by going short with stop above the high of last week.

Posted by: forextravel

GbpUsd, for those who do not believe in trend reversal

GBP/USD

Posted on: April 26, 2015 at 6:27AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 1.507

Target Price: 1.47

Analysis:

The GDP data will be published and this could impact the Pound on the eve of the May elections. The signal coming from GbpUsd seems in fact for now a positive expectation for the market that is trying to force the fall of the trend line in place on the Cable from nearly 1 year. We think that the success of the bullish break on the first try is quite unlikely and then area 1.51 should still be considered as a sales area of the Cable. The target is to come back at least to area 1.47.

Posted by: forextravel

USDJPY, ENTERING FROM THE SUPPORTS

USD/JPY

Posted on: April 19, 2015 at 2:57AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 118

Target Price: 122

Analysis:

A consolidation phase is occurring after the top of December 2014 in area 122 with UsdJpy that is repeating its behaviour already seen in other cases from 2012 to today when a triangular shaped consolidation phase was followed by very strong bullish directional phases. The bullish regression line has contained the double downward attempt in recent weeks and now the same support is still under pressure. An upward break would target area 128, while a bearish break of 118 would open new favourable scenarios to the Yen, a view that we prefer to discard at the moment, favouring the long side.

Posted by: forextravel

EURJPY, a third decreasing low

EUR/JPY

Posted on: April 11, 2015 at 7:37AM

Long / Short: Short

Current Price: 127

Target Price: 125

Analysis:

As we can see from the graph of EurJpy, Rsi prices divergences are strident, but we believe a third decreasing low in prices (and growing in the Rsi) will serve to close this bearish phase. Until now, the fall was divided into five waves, but it is not excluded that the fifth wave gets a final diagonal with a possible involvement of area 125. At that point, we believe that a long EurJpy could have an excellent risk-return ratio to try a long summer trade. The closure of the week below the important support of 128.50 seems to confirm this view.

Posted by: forextravel

EURUSD, awakenig signals

EUR/USD

Posted on: April 4, 2015 at 5:55AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 1.097

Target Price: 1.13

Analysis:

Signals on the end of the downward are still coming from EurUsd. After a classic correction in three bars below the top of March 26th of 1.1053, the exchange rate has provided a short-term bullish signal, also accomplices the disappointing data on the labor market on Friday. It might also reach 1.13 if the short term resistance of 1.1053 will be exceeded in the closure, but at that point maybe 1.15 could also be a realistic goal. At this point we could try a long by fixing the stop loss of the trade on the low of the last of April 1.07.

Posted by: forextravel

Long Kiwi

NZD/USD

Posted on: March 29, 2015 at 11:34AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 0

Target Price: 0

Analysis:

As for the New Zealand dollar, the positioning of hedge funds is still net short (all primary bottoms of NzdUsd were made in this condition), but also the technical analysis seems to provide encouraging signals. A double low has formed at 0.72 theoretically, but only the final break of 0.76 will formalize (but will also shut down) the downtrend in place since July 2014. The next target would be 0.80 that will further extend the currency reward for bonds holders of Nzd. The risk of entering at these prices can be contained and this is why we believe it could be interesting to go long NzdUsd.

Posted by: forextravel

April, a positive month for the Aussie

AUD/USD

Posted on: March 29, 2015 at 10:11AM

Long / Short: Long

Current Price: 0.775

Target Price: 0.8

Analysis:

April is a traditionally positive month for the Australian dollar, and for what concerns AUDUSD, this month should only serve to avert the danger of a fall in area 0.70. At the moment the trend remains bearish and the big clouds that look across the Aussie should prevent a trend reversal, but the very favourable seasonality and the proximity of primary supports could favour an attempt to climb up to the strong resistances of area 0.80. Going long now may be a good trading idea.

Posted by: forextravel

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